Olympics · resolved market
Spread: Germany (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x179aa011f14743de995b019b7ed900490eb67dbbfdb1efbc11d04c1334f099e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Latviaof Germany, Latvia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefde…6505backed Latvia | 51c | 2,231$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.96 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Germany | 49c | 2,171$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.97 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Germany | 52c | 819.09$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.93 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa5…4f56backed Latvia | 48c | 620.5$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef93…9f0dbacked Germany | 53c | 302.32$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9827…6c61backed Germany | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…a251backed Latvia | 47c | 213.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Latvia | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Latvia | 44c | 165.46$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.66 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc87d…6f31backed Latvia | 47c | 153.47$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533c…eb85backed Latvia | 47c | 149.32$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe940…b9a6backed Latvia | 48c | 140.1$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Germany | 52c | 130$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Latvia | 49c | 112.01$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Latvia | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Germany | 51c | 89.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Latvia | 49c | 87.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Latvia | 49c | 83.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Germany | 56c | 65.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…6266backed Germany | 53c | 55.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…1805backed Germany | 53c | 53.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…bce5backed Germany | 53c | 52.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb0…c9f8backed Germany | 53c | 51.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…c8ebbacked Germany | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Germany | 51c | 41.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…14c0backed Germany | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf71…9f1cbacked Germany | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Germany | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa20…7ec5backed Germany | 55c | 18.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Germany (-1.5)this page
- Germany vs. Latvia: O/U 5.5Over won
- Men's Group C - Germany vs. LatviaLatvia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.