CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17a2b18a76449bbcb4d39313a1dea097bec7d6be16548aaa763e05ed3d748715
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof MOUZ, Aurora Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked MOUZ | 32c | 2,706$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,849.93 | 612 | 28.9%177 W · 435 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Aurora Gaming | 67c | 1,250$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.69 | 1,157 | 48.2%558 W · 599 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed Aurora Gaming | 70c | 1,184$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.09 | 267 | 43.1%115 W · 152 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed MOUZ | 30c | 839.99$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.99 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aurora Gaming | 61c | 739.21$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.36 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…395cbacked MOUZ | 32c | 615$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.2 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ea…59a1backed Aurora Gaming | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 192 | 38%73 W · 119 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…2632backed Aurora Gaming | 70c | 305.64$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +278.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed MOUZ | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…fa91backed Aurora Gaming | 67c | 281.54$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.63 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5627backed Aurora Gaming | 70c | 214.29$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 405 | 58.8%238 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dd…4f27backed Aurora Gaming | 66c | 201.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.31 | 509 | 47%239 W · 270 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7eb…bfbfbacked Aurora Gaming | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -10.0wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…c533backed Aurora Gaming | 40c | 142.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 222 | 56.8%126 W · 96 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…571ebacked MOUZ | 30c | 74.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…698bbacked MOUZ | 61c | 64.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Aurora Gaming | 69c | 61.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 256 | 50.4%129 W · 127 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…b8e0backed Aurora Gaming | 45c | 49.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked MOUZ | 32c | 49.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked MOUZ | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…52c9backed Aurora Gaming | 37c | 38.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed MOUZ | 50c | 37.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed MOUZ | 67c | 33.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd984…59c8backed Aurora Gaming | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98e…4788backed Aurora Gaming | 69c | 28.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…4a73backed Aurora Gaming | 70c | 24.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Aurora Gaming | 70c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 991 | 48.3%479 W · 512 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde3…67b6backed Aurora Gaming | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Aurora Gaming | 73c | 15.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,365 | 66.3%905 W · 460 L | +76.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb05…955cbacked Aurora Gaming | 70c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana PlayoffsMOUZ won
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 WinnerMOUZ won
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.