South American Leagues · resolved market
Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-02-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17e1d03d02296a302623d60333fff69d604d30462dac1f39f6db496d44631c3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed No | 78c | 3,322$2,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,596.01 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 38c | 2,810$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.5 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 2,662$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,067.26 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed No | 45c | 2,333$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.85 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…9762backed Yes | 55c | 2,333$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.85 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 34c | 2,043$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.24 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 23c | 1,978$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.52 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed Yes | 24c | 868.57$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.11 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 24c | 833.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.93 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 4c | 762.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 211 | 32.7%69 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 451.9$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.45 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked No | 26c | 356.17$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Yes | 76c | 346.68$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked No | 38c | 313.34$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.21 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 25c | 291.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.91 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 51c | 242.54$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.45 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 30c | 181.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 38c | 180.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.57 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 76c | 178.57$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.54 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked Yes | 77c | 165.12$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 50c | 129.28$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a55…c349backed No | 36c | 111.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fca…5f02backed No | 22c | 106.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8c…2882backed Yes | 55c | 93.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 29c | 91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 65c | 88.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1878…85e2backed Yes | 68c | 69.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d3…8a20backed Yes | 72c | 66.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Yes | 50c | 66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 76c | 60.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722a…d6edbacked No | 33c | 56.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 41c | 54.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 55c | 50.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 27c | 48.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 73c | 44.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x269f…c358backed No | 37c | 43.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 43c | 39.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 199 | 63.8%127 W · 72 L | +19.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 79c | 23.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…d57bbacked Yes | 76c | 21.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…a57bbacked No | 56c | 18.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…c4fcbacked No | 63c | 16.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-02-26?this page
- Will AA Estudiantes vs. CA Huracán end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Huracán win on 2026-02-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.