MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17e7f1ee782bac97ba86306d5b5ebe1d6ad0f8190cf6eb27272f74a43d50e21f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78e3…2bcabacked Under | 48c | 2,702$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 1,860$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.08 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 52c | 1,501$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.52 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 21c | 1,220$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Over | 28c | 1,100$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 76c | 925.92$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.87 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 48c | 661$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.72 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 57c | 648.71$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.03 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 64c | 446.96$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.05 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 379.91$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.27 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 43c | 355.21$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.82 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Under | 54c | 353$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.38 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x003f…3805backed Over | 21c | 298.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 294.95$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 52c | 245.46$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.64 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 76c | 218.81$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 25c | 205.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 54c | 199.66$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.91 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Under | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 74c | 139.68$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Over | 55c | 108.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 50c | 99.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 50c | 99.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 52c | 84.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 65c | 70.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 58c | 60.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…ce6cbacked Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4453backed Over | 53c | 34.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.27per pick | 58cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 71c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Over | 48c | 21.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 70c | 21.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5this page
- Athletics vs. Houston AstrosAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.