MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x974e2d19370be2564e1d503ea51e283df372cfae97ecc724fdda261e253d9297
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 3,066$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407.99 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 2,090$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.77 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 57c | 1,134$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.49 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 48c | 947.26$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.86 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Under | 48c | 465.68$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.15 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 53c | 256$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.89 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 44c | 165.16$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 56c | 118.27$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 54c | 114$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 68c | 111.14$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 42c | 108.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…c5c3backed Under | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 85.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 62.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 47c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 55c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Over | 42c | 47.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 56c | 46.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 55c | 43.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 42.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a85…3699backed Over | 57c | 34.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 55c | 34.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…b506backed Under | 44c | 30.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 77c | 23.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 77c | 19.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. Houston AstrosAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.