MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17f7b11ed59ff5f38792e1a60d5bd75b441ddcf47697fcfde30c1ed9c5a8b9e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 6,353$2,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,440.54 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 3,970$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.32 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2c…ccc6backed Chicago Cubs | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago Cubs | 68c | 974.07$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.32 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 782$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.07 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 285.53$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 201.46$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…c098backed Chicago Cubs | 21c | 195.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…37d9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 76.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Chicago Cubs | 70c | 76.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…2aa4backed Chicago Cubs | 21c | 66.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa444…7c8bbacked Chicago Cubs | 21c | 55.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Chicago Cubs | 68c | 45.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 44.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 35.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 28.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 24.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago CubsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.