MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84bb7fd1b33c97cf6ad1e590f035a8bc6697cb5ae8b4870dcebd3ff4cde22f1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf2c…ccc6backed Chicago Cubs | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 72c | 3,387$2,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 3,055$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…7850backed Chicago Cubs | 21c | 2,149$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc30b…b9dbbacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 1,793$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 1,472$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.24 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 1,388$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 1,361$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.52 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 777$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.34 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 581.45$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.39 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 74c | 415$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.9 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfafe…c1c9backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 362.2$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 254.23$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.23 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 254.23$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.23 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9572…efffbacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 210.48$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 158.9$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 102.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 91.02$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Chicago Cubs | 26c | 64.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 54.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 54.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 49.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Chicago Cubs | 33c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0297…e67fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 77c | 26.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 18.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 292 | 56.5%165 W · 127 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 68c | 17.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x42fe…b1d0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 75c | 14.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago CubsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.