MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaee481f4434cd7f7defb0bbe351fc7f0a4abc3ca6ec166e521b561ac8d8b2b3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 45c | 19,745$8,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,885.24 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Under | 54c | 9,433$5,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,383.38 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 55c | 7,241$3,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,266.91 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Under | 55c | 6,000$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 55c | 5,555$3,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,499.75 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Over | 46c | 2,566$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.35 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Over | 47c | 1,973$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.53 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 54c | 1,700$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 46c | 1,323$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.35 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 46c | 1,304$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 48c | 1,301$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.48 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 1,296$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.39 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 46c | 1,144$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.53 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…28eabacked Under | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.91 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.02 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 1,056$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.64 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 47c | 1,024$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.28 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 1,001$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.55 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 53c | 952.26$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.9 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 46c | 897$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.62 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Under | 55c | 439.2$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.64 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 46c | 368$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.55 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbf…39e1backed Over | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Under | 55c | 290.46$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.71 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 46c | 284.83$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.02 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 35c | 270.75$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.13 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 226.3$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.19 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 22c | 157$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 46c | 152.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 47c | 151.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.43 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 46c | 138.41$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 54c | 115$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 65c | 102.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 46c | 99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 90.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 47c | 74.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…a806backed Over | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0811…1870backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 54c | 57.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 52c | 56.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…18c6backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…ca40backed Under | 76c | 51.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 36c | 50.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 46.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 46c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 49c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 38.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 51c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 36.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa662…c8adbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2b…2cd8backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 129 | 57.4%74 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 57c | 34.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…6872backed Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc66f…6c80backed Under | 55c | 29.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 45c | 25.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…1068backed Under | 54c | 22.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42fe…b1d0backed Under | 79c | 14.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago CubsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.