TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

F1 · resolved market

Will George Russell win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
F1every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,990
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,787

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,990 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in F1
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5646…3819backed Yes3c1,588$48 inLost-$47.891136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca4d…29ecbacked Yes6c1,569$100 inLost-$100520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes3c1,559$48 inLost-$47.521323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c1,421$32 inLost-$32.0812616.7%21 W · 105 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes4c1,105$43 inLost-$43.177733.8%26 W · 51 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b87…0eddbacked Yes4c1,097$40 inLost-$401225%3 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes4c1,000$40 inLost-$39.9912523.2%29 W · 96 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fee…54fabacked Yes5c974.76$50 inLost-$502213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe87a…6d01backed Yes4c876.11$32 inLost-$32.135149%25 W · 26 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c843.79$22 inLost-$22.23766.9%26 W · 350 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-67.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Yes3c599.96$18 inLost-$188027.5%22 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3df1…38dfbacked Yes4c519.02$20 inLost-$201414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-47.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f3f…ae90backed Yes3c500$16 inLost-$15.550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes5c489.83$24 inLost-$23.719219.6%18 W · 74 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes2c466.72$11 inLost-$10.736866.2%45 W · 23 L+10.7wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+26.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5721…0da3backed Yes4c455.81$20 inLost-$201020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe221…234dbacked Yes4c365.02$15 inLost-$15728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes3c340$11 inLost-$11.222646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.