Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x182c73d6f2bf9faee5bd6d2a347c9c07723450ebf9a0aad90edd39256d4685ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 68c | 573.25$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.3 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 284.69$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 258.25$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 220.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 186.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 137.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 59c | 132.66$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.82 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 79c | 131.62$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 130.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 43c | 124.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 120.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 47c | 106.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 45c | 101.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 11c | 95.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 43c | 92.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 42c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 57c | 68.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 64.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 52c | 60.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 42c | 57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 55c | 54.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 51.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 52c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf2…76f0backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed No | 54c | 49.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes | 54c | 49.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 42c | 46.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 48c | 45.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 68c | 43.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 42c | 42.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 41c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 54c | 37.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf722…4e1ebacked Yes | 57c | 36.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 34.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 75c | 33.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes | 59c | 32.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2a…967bbacked Yes | 43c | 29.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 46c | 27.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 46c | 26.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…95cfbacked No | 59c | 19.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 71c | 14.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.