World Politics · resolved market
Will the Conservative Party win 13+ seats in Quebec?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x183018ea56f62dee7ea851625d254ff986a830d38fbb40aa5142e852520d6a3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 41c | 464.93$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.67 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 35c | 438.98$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.03 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 35c | 410.63$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.76 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8877…e6ccbacked Yes | 36c | 295$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c7…a102backed Yes | 36c | 275$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…3a75backed Yes | 36c | 220$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb024…a682backed No | 69c | 202.46$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da0…da0ebacked No | 48c | 170$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d6…488abacked No | 64c | 170$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked No | 49c | 162$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.02 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa06a…2aa7backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c00…b206backed No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…59a9backed No | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe43…3e68backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…f4f0backed No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf15…0399backed No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 147$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…eb42backed No | 50c | 145$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f6…c209backed No | 64c | 145$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 68c | 114.61$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 62c | 103.93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed No | 58c | 99.92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…44a9backed Yes | 36c | 95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a3…dad3backed Yes | 67c | 95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…3981backed Yes | 49c | 81.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…7793backed No | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ba…ea64backed No | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x232c…ce04backed No | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 53cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…d7debacked No | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0d…3ec8backed No | 52c | 61.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 51c | 52.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 52cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe94…f965backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641e…aeb7backed No | 51c | 38.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…22f8backed Yes | 60c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ada…1f1bbacked Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6223…c602backed No | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c2…6d37backed No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4216…2daabacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e98…0009backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…ec52backed Yes | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4782…e79ebacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…5a9dbacked No | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc30…e76ebacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf36b…5cc8backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.