MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x186c27399ddf4145c41914bde52e3c2ff0bd2816ecc26e2ad320e1434273145d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies | 20c | 6,862$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404.02 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 76c | 5,012$3,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Philadelphia Phillies | 21c | 2,524$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.02 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Blue Jays | 79c | 2,440$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.09 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 78c | 2,346$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 1,007$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.23 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 465.54$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.87 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 407.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.66 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 80c | 401$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 393.88$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.97 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Philadelphia Phillies | 23c | 304.67$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays | 80c | 185.97$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 128.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 116.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 116.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 116.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 116.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 116.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 116.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…3806backed Philadelphia Phillies | 19c | 94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 23c | 82.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 18c | 82.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 23c | 81.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 19c | 71.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 68.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 80c | 68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba34…c745backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 47.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf175…12c7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 47.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…76c7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 45.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 27c | 40.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 30.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…16e1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 80c | 17.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue JaysPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-5.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-7.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.