MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeddf896d4959c2399f0be4f392d24dd9e78d43af1dd636e0bab57da52e08c650
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 7,237$4,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,808.99 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 7,057$2,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,785.25 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 3,904$1,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.31 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 2,075$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.65 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 1,519$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.69 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 1,416$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.23 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 806.75$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.26 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 705.89$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.52 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 658.74$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.69 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 621.23$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.15 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 554.77$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.3 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 385.09$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.46 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 323$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.16 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…8956backed Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 269.37$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 230$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 201.06$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.7 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 187.3$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.06 | 105 | 59%62 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 104.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 102.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 26c | 98.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 96.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 94.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 89.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 80.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 80.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Philadelphia Phillies | 68c | 66.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 61.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…704abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 49.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 44.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x332c…7175backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 40.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 33.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 33.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 33.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 29.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 29.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae3…93c3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 29.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 21.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 21.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 21.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 75c | 20.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 19.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue JaysPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-5.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-7.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.