Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Bellarmine Knights vs. Central Arkansas Bears
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x187207eff6eb3795e588fd71033cf47130a4d4961be090e7dcc666840c99238c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Central Arkansas Bearsof Bellarmine Knights, Central Arkansas Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Bellarmine Knights | 27c | 1,506$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.38 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Central Arkansas Bears | 70c | 1,442$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.04 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 79c | 826.9$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.31 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Central Arkansas Bears | 67c | 772.48$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.14 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Bellarmine Knights | 21c | 601.29$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.27 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Bellarmine Knights | 41c | 588.85$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.45 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Central Arkansas Bears | 79c | 543$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.03 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Central Arkansas Bears | 77c | 530.91$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.37 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ea5ebacked Bellarmine Knights | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 371 | 42.6%158 W · 213 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Central Arkansas Bears | 69c | 241.72$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Bellarmine Knights | 24c | 200.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Bellarmine Knights | 21c | 192.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bellarmine Knights | 17c | 185$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bellarmine Knights | 21c | 180.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Bellarmine Knights | 26c | 156.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 423 | 39.2%166 W · 257 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked Central Arkansas Bears | 77c | 154.69$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Bellarmine Knights | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Bellarmine Knights | 20c | 98.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Central Arkansas Bears | 72c | 95.24$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 932 | 47.3%441 W · 491 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Central Arkansas Bears | 80c | 94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 397 | 42.8%170 W · 227 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Central Arkansas Bears | 79c | 86.71$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x512a…0b6ebacked Bellarmine Knights | 28c | 70.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Bellarmine Knights | 33c | 68.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed Central Arkansas Bears | 80c | 68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Bellarmine Knights | 22c | 66.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf72…b4a6backed Central Arkansas Bears | 77c | 64.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bellarmine Knights | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Bellarmine Knights | 23c | 59.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…ac0abacked Bellarmine Knights | 27c | 50.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 356 | 50.8%181 W · 175 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Bellarmine Knights | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e86…0979backed Bellarmine Knights | 42c | 40.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c4…d7dfbacked Bellarmine Knights | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 61c | 39.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Central Arkansas Bears | 66c | 32.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Bellarmine Knights | 52c | 31.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f1…6bc6backed Central Arkansas Bears | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 77cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc8…8eacbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9369…8b85backed Central Arkansas Bears | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe4…52d7backed Central Arkansas Bears | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 76cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e16…fe0abacked Central Arkansas Bears | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 77cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…be18backed Central Arkansas Bears | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bellarmine Knights vs. Central Arkansas Bearsthis page
- Bellarmine Knights vs. Central Arkansas Bears: O/U 150.5Over won
- Bellarmine Knights vs. Central Arkansas Bears: O/U 151.5Over won
- Bellarmine Knights vs. Central Arkansas Bears: O/U 152.5Over won
- Spread: Central Arkansas Bears (-7.5)Central Arkansas Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.