Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18aadf3add7e32940b539dfa1aa8dd6d302edc88a6039dee194ff5e71403fc34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa246…dbe5backed No | 34c | 2,634$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac5…f64cbacked No | 34c | 2,622$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b75…081dbacked Yes | 66c | 1,334$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce0…5942backed Yes | 66c | 1,327$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fb…a960backed Yes | 66c | 1,300$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…fb01backed Yes | 66c | 1,295$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 78c | 998.97$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.51 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 2c | 942.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 68c | 875.9$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.57 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 9c | 779.46$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 31c | 557.75$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.12 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 549.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 8c | 457.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked Yes | 54c | 325.24$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 18c | 280.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 58c | 260.66$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.66 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 7c | 197.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 26c | 189.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.59 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 28c | 183.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 32c | 162.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.13 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 18c | 152.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 48c | 151.54$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 144.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 32c | 142$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.01 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 138.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 113.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 32c | 108.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.01 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 73c | 101.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 75c | 101.35$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb058…852cbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 59c | 92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes | 75c | 90.4$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 24c | 86.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9e…63acbacked No | 65c | 86.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked No | 15c | 82.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 36c | 82.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 79.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 40c | 78.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 33c | 77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 36c | 76.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 64c | 74.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 59c | 66.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed No | 23c | 65.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…f0f4backed Yes | 35c | 64.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…36b3backed Yes | 61c | 63.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 60.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 50c | 51.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaa…1d0ebacked No | 73c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 37c | 48.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 23c | 48.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 42.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49e5…8933backed Yes | 39c | 41.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…8a65backed Yes | 36c | 41.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 40.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b09…a19fbacked No | 67c | 38.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f74…411abacked Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 68c | 34.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 33.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…4e25backed No | 69c | 30.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8744…3d64backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 78c | 25.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f0…4a82backed No | 65c | 25.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 71c | 22.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d0…f7e4backed Yes | 71c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +41%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or higher on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C or below on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.