Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bcbf07337ef9bce46a40f856b4c21495c4d984885b51e4eee6850bad9d64d51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 0c | 7,776$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,761$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.44 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 10c | 1,100$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.9 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 80c | 467.96$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.74 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 6c | 410.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 24c | 294.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 292.5$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 269.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 37c | 233.79$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 15c | 219.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 218.84$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 12c | 210.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 9c | 205.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 193.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 58c | 172.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 18c | 167.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…f0f4backed Yes | 47c | 166.69$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.17 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…44c3backed Yes | 23c | 161.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaba…23f5backed No | 64c | 155.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 41c | 142$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 69c | 124.65$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 70c | 121.67$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 113.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2152…c47ebacked No | 69c | 108.43$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked No | 71c | 104.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 53c | 99.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa6…6cb8backed Yes | 49c | 91.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 15c | 83.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 69c | 80.74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 45c | 74.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 22c | 72.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…2c08backed Yes | 24c | 68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…0f11backed Yes | 19c | 63.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 37c | 63.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 56c | 58.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2b…f440backed Yes | 38c | 52.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 33c | 51.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 39c | 51.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 80c | 51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…36b3backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 58c | 49.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 30c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 32.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 32.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes | 38c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8744…3d64backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 72c | 27.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa5…92aebacked No | 58c | 26.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 25.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 24.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d11…71a2backed No | 54c | 20.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or higher on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C or below on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.