Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or higher on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e0b690db97a7fffcba19a91e670797d1fdbd59d4f2910f11f066aa7bee25443
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Yes | 0c | 25,053$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…8fa0backed Yes | 1c | 1,532$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 1,319$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 13c | 770.1$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.23 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6edd…6569backed Yes | 2c | 750$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 15c | 648.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 11c | 576.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 16c | 470.22$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 6c | 445.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 386.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9390…6303backed Yes | 14c | 364.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed Yes | 11c | 360$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 12c | 319.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 313.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 14c | 299.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 5c | 275$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 9c | 274.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e36…70e3backed Yes | 10c | 220.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…8a65backed Yes | 10c | 204.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a15…e269backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 11c | 163.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 15c | 161.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 17c | 160$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…80edbacked Yes | 11c | 153.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 11c | 142$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…2104backed Yes | 11c | 135.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b22…3490backed Yes | 15c | 132.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c6…76b2backed No | 78c | 129.73$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 13c | 127.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb9…1ed1backed Yes | 12c | 125.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 22c | 119.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 13c | 109.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 21c | 103.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 101.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 12c | 101.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516b…5fd0backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 79c | 94.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 92.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…9487backed Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92ed…23c6backed Yes | 13c | 89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2878…e56abacked Yes | 12c | 85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7b…cc6abacked Yes | 14c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 81.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…0a31backed Yes | 16c | 72.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed Yes | 17c | 63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…616ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x690d…9221backed Yes | 23c | 62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 80c | 58.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6f…f5f0backed Yes | 19c | 51.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 72c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2d…1ad8backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…6ec8backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or higher on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C or below on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.