Tennis · resolved market
Morelia: Alexis Galarneau vs Miguel Tobon
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18e5919acfe6eeedefbb2f5b85657a0f0f951ff2ad96e8c3a51a93dc11b361b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alexis Galarneauof Alexis Galarneau, Miguel Tobon
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,526 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd641…cd4bbacked Alexis Galarneau | 77c | 2,205$1,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.38 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Miguel Tobon | 15c | 1,917$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.81 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Alexis Galarneau | 65c | 1,864$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.88 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miguel Tobon | 33c | 1,581$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.16 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Alexis Galarneau | 78c | 1,550$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.49 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Miguel Tobon | 33c | 1,307$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.47 | 507 | 31.2%158 W · 349 L | -41.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Miguel Tobon | 21c | 728.55$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.52 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Alexis Galarneau | 70c | 714.26$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.28 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…a5d6backed Alexis Galarneau | 73c | 680.38$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.38 | 504 | 58.9%297 W · 207 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miguel Tobon | 24c | 544.75$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.13 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Miguel Tobon | 29c | 484.47$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.75 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Miguel Tobon | 30c | 425.69$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.48 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Miguel Tobon | 31c | 423.6$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.37 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…d22bbacked Alexis Galarneau | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Alexis Galarneau | 74c | 259.52$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Miguel Tobon | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Miguel Tobon | 43c | 233.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ff…6672backed Miguel Tobon | 6c | 233.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 155 | 12.9%20 W · 135 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc003…47a8backed Alexis Galarneau | 74c | 214.59$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…983fbacked Alexis Galarneau | 77c | 201$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Alexis Galarneau | 67c | 187.85$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 958 | 46.6%446 W · 512 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Alexis Galarneau | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked Alexis Galarneau | 59c | 166.27$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.17 | 486 | 50.6%246 W · 240 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Alexis Galarneau | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 573 | 49.6%284 W · 289 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89b…f512backed Miguel Tobon | 46c | 160$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8c…3d1abacked Alexis Galarneau | 64c | 156.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked Miguel Tobon | 31c | 149.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Miguel Tobon | 33c | 140.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…7e25backed Miguel Tobon | 13c | 140.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Miguel Tobon | 38c | 134$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Miguel Tobon | 23c | 134$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Alexis Galarneau | 55c | 119.38$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Miguel Tobon | 29c | 114$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…4da1backed Miguel Tobon | 32c | 104.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Alexis Galarneau | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 412 | 72.8%300 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Miguel Tobon | 13c | 98.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Miguel Tobon | 33c | 96.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Miguel Tobon | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…636dbacked Miguel Tobon | 45c | 88.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…bd37backed Miguel Tobon | 40c | 87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Alexis Galarneau | 72c | 83.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda74…1ab0backed Miguel Tobon | 50c | 83.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 945 | 49.6%469 W · 476 L | -23.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde48…accbbacked Alexis Galarneau | 66c | 73.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Alexis Galarneau | 69c | 63.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd499…7d5bbacked Miguel Tobon | 40c | 62.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 145 | 55.2%80 W · 65 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Miguel Tobon | 18c | 61.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Miguel Tobon | 33c | 60.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 349 | 50.4%176 W · 173 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Alexis Galarneau | 66c | 59.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 2,855 | 49.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Miguel Tobon | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Miguel Tobon | 37c | 48.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Miguel Tobon | 27c | 46.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Alexis Galarneau | 69c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c38…291fbacked Miguel Tobon | 41c | 32.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Alexis Galarneau | 73c | 30.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…a58dbacked Miguel Tobon | 34c | 29.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 163 | 69.3%113 W · 50 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Alexis Galarneau | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 524 | 57.4%301 W · 223 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…2b7abacked Alexis Galarneau | 66c | 21.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Alexis Galarneau | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0a…e318backed Alexis Galarneau | 67c | 19.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…c851backed Alexis Galarneau | 69c | 15.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…ca4ebacked Alexis Galarneau | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…5be2backed Alexis Galarneau | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.