TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rune Eatersof Rune Eaters, Team Lynx
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,477
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,633

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,477 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Lynx48c7,224$3,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,492.796645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Rune Eaters58c1,942$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.3399844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Rune Eaters58c1,782$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.491,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Rune Eaters47c1,161$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.6971454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked Team Lynx39c1,154$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.9629240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Lynx52c1,133$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.641,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Lynx54c1,075$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.7786659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Rune Eaters48c1,021$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.0637945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Rune Eaters76c898.61$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.3377458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Rune Eaters52c829.73$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.267043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed Rune Eaters45c657.45$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.0629240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…d03fbacked Rune Eaters59c499.99$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.517965.4%117 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Rune Eaters56c429.21$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.212,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Team Lynx48c400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19246240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Team Lynx51c372.43$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.216237.1%23 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Team Lynx14c364.19$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.81,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Rune Eaters51c322.93$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.6457654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Rune Eaters53c321.5$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.51,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed Rune Eaters56c308.87$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.7937745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Team Lynx47c306.88$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2617443.7%76 W · 98 L-11.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb29a…bbdebacked Rune Eaters51c299.7$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.396141%25 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Rune Eaters55c253.1$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.8915545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Rune Eaters47c209.69$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.1313850%69 W · 69 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7627…4404backed Rune Eaters52c186.77$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6514832.4%48 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Rune Eaters48c185.1$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0743738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf981…44b7backed Rune Eaters53c182.7$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.87944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Rune Eaters48c172.82$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.231,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Rune Eaters58c168.07$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5954445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e09…3250backed Rune Eaters68c132.48$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Rune Eaters77c102.81$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.152,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed Team Lynx58c94.22$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0230534.4%105 W · 200 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a7a…6c9abacked Rune Eaters65c83.47$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2517644.9%79 W · 97 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-10.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Rune Eaters46c82.56$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7269033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Lynx50c72.22$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.111,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9be…a0c1backed Rune Eaters61c71$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5325253.2%134 W · 118 L+20.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked Rune Eaters51c65.63$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1658250.5%294 W · 288 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x630b…34ffbacked Team Lynx36c54.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.232552%13 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Team Lynx36c51.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2764123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Lynx56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a35…6fe0backed Rune Eaters36c46.88$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304854.2%26 W · 22 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Team Lynx44c46.75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.71,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Rune Eaters43c46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2265337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa163…3ccbbacked Rune Eaters43c46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2215536.1%56 W · 99 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Rune Eaters43c46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2216837.5%63 W · 105 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Team Lynx64c45.86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3573554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Team Lynx46c42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.527357.1%156 W · 117 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked Rune Eaters49c41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9135032.3%113 W · 237 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Rune Eaters55c35.68$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2291553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1193…d9c4backed Rune Eaters46c29.82$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.147859%46 W · 32 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d080backed Rune Eaters50c29.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5110152.5%53 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Rune Eaters48c29.06$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1779343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc30d…acfabacked Rune Eaters51c23.34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Rune Eaters60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a23…417bbacked Team Lynx64c19.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.74250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1643…6ec8backed Rune Eaters54c19.45$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.952085%17 W · 3 L+5.4wins+0.27per pick58cpaid+44.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7f3a…e03dbacked Rune Eaters52c19.35$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.293935.9%14 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid+63.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3534…a1b3backed Team Lynx62c16.35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-65.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.