Lol · resolved market
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Esprit Shōnen (BO3) - LFL Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18f8f975c5aabf15dabd3b1577e2a2890e54a75c4ab37879d798642d4b637ab9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TLN Piratesof TLN Pirates, Esprit Shōnen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8d0…f87ebacked Esprit Shōnen | 20c | 2,363$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.9 | 399 | 40.4%161 W · 238 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed TLN Pirates | 79c | 999.98$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 1,151 | 56%644 W · 507 L | +25.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Esprit Shōnen | 19c | 847.74$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.07 | 1,468 | 28.9%424 W · 1,044 L | +23.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Esprit Shōnen | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1,258 | 38.6%485 W · 773 L | -61.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Esprit Shōnen | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 611 | 43.5%266 W · 345 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Esprit Shōnen | 16c | 479.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 152 | 32.2%49 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db8…8908backed Esprit Shōnen | 21c | 438.38$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60d…ad79backed TLN Pirates | 80c | 411$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…a2cbbacked TLN Pirates | 80c | 371.34$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.62 | 245 | 54.3%133 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Esprit Shōnen | 6c | 311$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 3,131 | 33.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L | -150.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Esprit Shōnen | 5c | 299.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 441 | 29.5%130 W · 311 L | -45.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -48%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Esprit Shōnen | 7c | 267.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 1,521 | 50.6%769 W · 752 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Esprit Shōnen | 10c | 266$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 369 | 46.1%170 W · 199 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Esprit Shōnen | 21c | 262.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 1,310 | 37.3%489 W · 821 L | -86.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Esprit Shōnen | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 229 | 30.6%70 W · 159 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Esprit Shōnen | 7c | 223.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 1,464 | 43.4%636 W · 828 L | -32.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024c…5fa1backed Esprit Shōnen | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,208 | 35.8%432 W · 776 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Esprit Shōnen | 12c | 141.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2,905 | 38.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L | -118.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…a9ecbacked Esprit Shōnen | 22c | 139.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 520 | 49.2%256 W · 264 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Esprit Shōnen | 15c | 125$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 1,899 | 37.1%705 W · 1,194 L | -113.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Esprit Shōnen | 19c | 124.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 1,922 | 42.2%811 W · 1,111 L | -45.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Esprit Shōnen | 14c | 110$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1,831 | 17.1%313 W · 1,518 L | -236.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…ea90backed Esprit Shōnen | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,110 | 49%544 W · 566 L | +42.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc78a…ea34backed TLN Pirates | 80c | 99.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 440 | 62.7%276 W · 164 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f6…2056backed TLN Pirates | 80c | 99.01$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Esprit Shōnen | 20c | 88.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1,643 | 44.4%730 W · 913 L | -42.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…5f07backed TLN Pirates | 80c | 83.83$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed TLN Pirates | 77c | 77.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 679 | 31.8%216 W · 463 L | -31.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed TLN Pirates | 76c | 75.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…1fa2backed TLN Pirates | 80c | 73.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Esprit Shōnen | 21c | 61.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 1,372 | 48.6%667 W · 705 L | +57.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5adc…b49ebacked TLN Pirates | 80c | 61.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe332…18c7backed TLN Pirates | 80c | 57.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe46b…934dbacked TLN Pirates | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c4…a7ffbacked TLN Pirates | 80c | 50.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 212 | 66.5%141 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Esprit Shōnen | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 797 | 45.8%365 W · 432 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…8b20backed TLN Pirates | 80c | 37.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed TLN Pirates | 75c | 35.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 124 | 43.5%54 W · 70 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed TLN Pirates | 75c | 34.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 2,202 | 33.3%733 W · 1,469 L | -72.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…2c42backed TLN Pirates | 71c | 26.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e1…8d38backed TLN Pirates | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed TLN Pirates | 80c | 20.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: TLN Pirates vs Esprit Shōnen (BO3) - LFL Playoffsthis page
- Game Handicap: TLNP (-1.5) vs Esprit Shōnen (+1.5)TLN Pirates won
- LoL: TLN Pirates vs Esprit Shōnen - Game 1 WinnerTLN Pirates won
- LoL: TLN Pirates vs Esprit Shōnen - Game 2 WinnerTLN Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.