Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: TLNP (-1.5) vs Esprit Shōnen (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a4a70a0b49696e502ec2b73790176e175cfcaf546ff1f30f8d11b1426274a35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TLN Piratesof TLN Pirates, Esprit Shōnen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f03…b1bebacked Esprit Shōnen | 48c | 2,523$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.04 | 1,132 | 52.5%594 W · 538 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed TLN Pirates | 52c | 2,100$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf38…848bbacked TLN Pirates | 51c | 1,120$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.03 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Esprit Shōnen | 49c | 1,009$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.91 | 498 | 47.2%235 W · 263 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked TLN Pirates | 52c | 600$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287 | 647 | 49.9%323 W · 324 L | -24.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Esprit Shōnen | 47c | 571.7$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.7 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Esprit Shōnen | 46c | 512.46$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.66 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked TLN Pirates | 53c | 398.41$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.63 | 605 | 38.8%235 W · 370 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed TLN Pirates | 54c | 370$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Esprit Shōnen | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 481 | 43.2%208 W · 273 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c67…9896backed TLN Pirates | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 506 | 46%233 W · 273 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…612abacked TLN Pirates | 54c | 192.9$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.9 | 440 | 46.4%204 W · 236 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Esprit Shōnen | 35c | 117.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,007 | 47.9%482 W · 525 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed TLN Pirates | 51c | 102$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 390 | 56.4%220 W · 170 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Esprit Shōnen | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,156 | 45.1%521 W · 635 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Esprit Shōnen | 35c | 82.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 390 | 55.4%216 W · 174 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc671…b0c7backed TLN Pirates | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 428 | 47.9%205 W · 223 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed TLN Pirates | 51c | 32.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Esprit Shōnen | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 450 | 44.7%201 W · 249 L | -29.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed TLN Pirates | 54c | 22.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 1,576 | 48.4%763 W · 813 L | +17.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TLNP (-1.5) vs Esprit Shōnen (+1.5)this page
- LoL: TLN Pirates vs Esprit Shōnen (BO3) - LFL PlayoffsTLN Pirates won
- LoL: TLN Pirates vs Esprit Shōnen - Game 1 WinnerTLN Pirates won
- LoL: TLN Pirates vs Esprit Shōnen - Game 2 WinnerTLN Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.