Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19085fadd0522404906b2b40d50bf1ccedc0b744252e71d373d9c79fdbe736b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 632.42$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.54 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 32c | 592.59$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 523.48$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 469.63$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.48 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 35c | 282$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 183.54$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.62 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 180.59$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 35c | 140.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 135.31$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 66c | 130.09$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 125.43$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 102.6$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 68c | 101.21$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 34c | 88.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 71c | 86.93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 80.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 65c | 80.2$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 67c | 79.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 77.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 35c | 71.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 68.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 36c | 64.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6b…ff01backed Yes | 36c | 59.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 36c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 65c | 57.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 74c | 56.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 31c | 56.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 66c | 54.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 65c | 46.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 67c | 43.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 37c | 40.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 38c | 39.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 34c | 37.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 37.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 36.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 35.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 35c | 34.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcea…18cbbacked Yes | 33c | 33.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a63…0e48backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 30.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 67c | 29.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2657…bad1backed No | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 62c | 23.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 21.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 64c | 21.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 67c | 19.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.