Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5142d3f770b52314fd5505ea3467fbd50e79a4f9b4ff70265b6b96e33748bb5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 1,094$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 448.77$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 48c | 405.36$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.49 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 23c | 350$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.8 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 13c | 271.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.68 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 12c | 260.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.53 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 10c | 227$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.3 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 15c | 205.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.07 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 202.18$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…1e18backed Yes | 12c | 173.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.22 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 12c | 124.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.09 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 76c | 123.91$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.17 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 112.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 76c | 105.26$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.66 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 13c | 83.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.18 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 25c | 83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 69.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…6357backed Yes | 25c | 65.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…9922backed No | 68c | 42.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 53c | 37.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 50c | 33.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 52c | 32.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 80c | 27.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…95ddbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.