Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1925d05c679bf170948ffded39bcbe47719ec886778f7c00b776f14a809061cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 0c | 4,001$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…6879backed No | 0c | 3,460$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 0c | 3,220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 2c | 2,847$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 16c | 1,305$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.47 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 21c | 1,187$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.25 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…ada7backed Yes | 78c | 1,067$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.5 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 74c | 1,056$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.38 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 987.96$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 7c | 842.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked No | 15c | 680.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb90…a1afbacked Yes | 79c | 629.4$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42fd…96c0backed No | 2c | 551$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 77c | 496.67$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.81 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 63c | 491.78$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.88 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…c512backed No | 25c | 430.51$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 19c | 406.06$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.75 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 18c | 395.8$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 6c | 274.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…5e5fbacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 7c | 190.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…0d41backed Yes | 23c | 189.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.9 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 18c | 150.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 146.22$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.51 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 145.65$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 31c | 143.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4791…3b1abacked No | 22c | 140.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…07cfbacked No | 15c | 119.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 110.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 22c | 106.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 80c | 104.86$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 77c | 100.69$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…c010backed No | 12c | 99.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 21c | 97.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.77 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 41c | 93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 22c | 90.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 90.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 20c | 85.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.59 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked Yes | 79c | 73.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 78c | 72.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 20c | 71.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 29c | 69.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6209…e82fbacked No | 19c | 61.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x677d…1ea0backed No | 80c | 60.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes | 78c | 59.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 20c | 56.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…f009backed Yes | 78c | 48.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 45.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 31c | 45.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 30c | 43.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 80c | 40.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked Yes | 28c | 39.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 69c | 34.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…931dbacked No | 46c | 33.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…72aabacked Yes | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813c…1cd1backed No | 74c | 26.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 80c | 24.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd9…fd91backed Yes | 76c | 19.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.