Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x192d061c24c9fe514f5a3ac79bdaa1d388cccafcba88950766f870bb6c996b23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 1,102$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.51 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 984.49$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 441.69$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 54c | 275.62$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.79 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 53c | 241.13$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.56 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 214.73$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 161.22$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 133.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 47c | 128$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 44c | 117.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 56c | 87.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 40c | 84.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 68c | 77.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 47c | 62.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 56.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 34c | 56.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 49.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 46.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 58c | 34.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 59c | 33.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 30.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 53c | 28.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 60c | 24.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 41c | 24.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 46c | 23.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 55c | 22.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 66c | 22.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…52abbacked No | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf04…6bf7backed No | 67c | 15.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.