NBA · resolved market
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Knicks?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19466e5aad04412e7fb1e0c74b7e0bb81df31f2adca6f28d6ce73c906643809c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf0d…1750backed Yes | 5c | 6,788$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e8…a7bdbacked Yes | 10c | 2,651$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.38 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -87%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec7…fe43backed Yes | 32c | 937.73$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…4c4cbacked Yes | 2c | 934.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8a…4d04backed Yes | 74c | 668.67$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 660.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 9c | 617.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9c…d5c5backed Yes | 21c | 575.17$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 430.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 4c | 287$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 19c | 270.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 62c | 261.01$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…1b74backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9019…42e0backed No | 79c | 187.12$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 13c | 179.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 11c | 157.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…0b77backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc226…9df1backed Yes | 21c | 83.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89df…c5ddbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Knicks?this page
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Celtics?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Heat?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Lakers?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Nets?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Pistons?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Raptors?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Rockets?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Spurs?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded? Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.