NBA · resolved market
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3778d1b115bb35858ad688911a878d2478701e23e00ffdeea5a8e3524958d53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e8…a7bdbacked No | 23c | 10,667$2,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,430.01 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -87%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4c…75a7backed No | 10c | 2,040$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 26c | 1,959$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.17 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 79c | 1,765$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.64 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9570…c030backed No | 29c | 1,388$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…1750backed No | 7c | 1,051$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 726.1$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.21 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 16c | 718.93$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.31 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 22c | 291.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb867…169dbacked No | 20c | 259.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed Yes | 77c | 258.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 157 | 42.7%67 W · 90 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 22c | 250.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9c…d5c5backed No | 27c | 241.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked No | 22c | 240$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc803…3177backed Yes | 79c | 215.38$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 27c | 210.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…ce16backed No | 6c | 199.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 22c | 198.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 72c | 182.66$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.74 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed No | 44c | 174.95$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 18c | 166.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 8c | 164.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 25c | 157.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…dbdcbacked No | 21c | 123.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -40%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…cc9abacked No | 14c | 112.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…a576backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 157 | 24.2%38 W · 119 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 13c | 94.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 41c | 77.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed Yes | 78c | 62.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 17c | 61.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 76c | 53.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f7…8a42backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae1…7a4dbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 60c | 22.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc165…94a4backed Yes | 80c | 22.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…c3a1backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…99d7backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75f…f91ebacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded? this page
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Celtics?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Heat?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Knicks?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Lakers?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Nets?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Pistons?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Raptors?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Rockets?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Spurs?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.