Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: SaD Esports vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x195dc27adc23e6a3d408b0ebb54ce10191b4af69bfde294439aa13c0c487f107
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SaD Esportsof SaD Esports, Shopify Rebellion Black
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked SaD Esports | 38c | 999.97$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.98 | 867 | 47.5%412 W · 455 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…5333backed SaD Esports | 65c | 889.62$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.16 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 52c | 855.78$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.27 | 689 | 49.5%341 W · 348 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21d…2e9abacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 54c | 624.86$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.63 | 267 | 58.8%157 W · 110 L | +18.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 37c | 338.09$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.64 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 63c | 320.42$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.58 | 180 | 56.1%101 W · 79 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked SaD Esports | 63c | 318.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.2 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1b…dcf3backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 44c | 270.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked SaD Esports | 39c | 269.75$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.55 | 888 | 44.4%394 W · 494 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5747…7fdfbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 57c | 190.1$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 628 | 56.4%354 W · 274 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked SaD Esports | 57c | 163.13$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 24c | 159.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 225 | 39.1%88 W · 137 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed SaD Esports | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,276 | 32.1%409 W · 867 L | -67.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 18c | 148.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x378c…14b8backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 20c | 126.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed SaD Esports | 61c | 119.97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 26c | 114.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 848 | 38.2%324 W · 524 L | -50.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…14e7backed SaD Esports | 40c | 110$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 139 | 33.1%46 W · 93 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 54c | 101.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 1,309 | 43.8%573 W · 736 L | -44.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 47c | 98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 998 | 46%459 W · 539 L | -27.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 32c | 96.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…7da8backed SaD Esports | 46c | 79.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked SaD Esports | 52c | 57.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 204 | 39.2%80 W · 124 L | -18.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 58c | 50.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 56c | 47.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 666 | 50.8%338 W · 328 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 60c | 46.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 463 | 47.1%218 W · 245 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76bb…4548backed SaD Esports | 55c | 45.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffbc…102fbacked SaD Esports | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked SaD Esports | 42c | 33.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 117 | 35%41 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf5…1095backed SaD Esports | 49c | 33.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x249e…4fa6backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 39c | 32.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 41c | 31.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 155 | 35.5%55 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…8926backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 112 | 58%65 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked SaD Esports | 53c | 28.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 907 | 33.1%300 W · 607 L | -89.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked SaD Esports | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 385 | 48.6%187 W · 198 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: SaD Esports vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: SaD Esports vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 PlayoffsSaD Esports won
- Valorant: SaD Esports vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 WinnerShopify Rebellion Black won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.