NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19744743befabdf64b1740224244413c8b591b79e562ae5d7cc788072b7671f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 5,490$2,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,635.51 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 50c | 3,516$1,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,741 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Under | 49c | 3,396$1,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680.75 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…9188backed Under | 45c | 666.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa499…7873backed Over | 56c | 535.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.84 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Under | 44c | 490$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.6 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 238.31$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.62 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edb…6089backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 55c | 168.74$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.93 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 47c | 144$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 114.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Under | 47c | 96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 43c | 64.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 52c | 50.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 44c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Under | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 33.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Under | 47c | 33.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5this page
- Pelicans vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.