NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a15ae23be51a4482753e7544a82fadba78232d0f5118b4e8ee07efa3c67a580
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 15,234$7,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,768.39 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 49c | 6,588$3,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,360 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 51c | 5,925$3,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,021.91 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 49c | 4,500$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,295 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Under | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Under | 49c | 1,010$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Under | 49c | 810$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.1 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Over | 51c | 621.76$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.1 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Under | 49c | 555$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.05 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 192.31$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 51c | 188.24$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 46c | 178.71$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.8 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Over | 51c | 149.61$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Over | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Under | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…b8ffbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…1100backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…7c67backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 53c | 50.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 236 | 51.7%122 W · 114 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebcc…c21ebacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Over | 51c | 29.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Under | 49c | 22.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba1…b0b6backed Under | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 51c | 20.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…3a67backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 370 | 37.3%138 W · 232 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5this page
- Pelicans vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.