NBA · resolved market
Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7084bbd76d822d570741cb34d34af0969de7782c38dbf90a3c5f49a21d8a9e07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Mavericks, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Mavericks | 48c | 30,000$14,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,399.77 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pelicans | 52c | 16,172$8,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,756.81 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 52c | 14,580$7,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,068.71 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Mavericks | 49c | 7,041$3,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,450 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pelicans | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf32…aecbbacked Mavericks | 49c | 2,265$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.95 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Pelicans | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…a48ebacked Pelicans | 52c | 1,538$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.46 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Mavericks | 47c | 649.99$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.5 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Pelicans | 55c | 560$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 375 | 57.6%216 W · 159 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Mavericks | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Mavericks | 45c | 436$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.2 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Pelicans | 55c | 430$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.5 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans | 52c | 386.31$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.43 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pelicans | 51c | 324.99$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.25 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Mavericks | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Mavericks | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Mavericks | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb247…bb09backed Mavericks | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Pelicans | 51c | 81.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…5431backed Mavericks | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 224 | 67.9%152 W · 72 L | +13.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Mavericks | 49c | 71.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…a17ebacked Mavericks | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Pelicans | 53c | 33.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks | 41c | 30.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)this page
- Pelicans vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.