TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb247…bb09

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
87
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 54 out of 100; worst NFL at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST1833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-28.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
NFL — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bills vs. Jaguarsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$39.2
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$53
Commanders vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$19.8
Panthers vs. Buccaneersbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+69.5%+$41
Patriots vs. Ravensbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$50.4
Chargers vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$71
Bills vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$118.49
Bears vs. Packersbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+38%+$18
Chiefs vs. Cowboysbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$40.2
Buccaneers vs. Ramsbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$10.4
Falcons vs. Saintsbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+112.8%+$21.2
Colts vs. Chiefsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
Patriots vs. Bengalsbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Vikings vs. Packersbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$14.5
Bills vs. Texansbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+300%+$37.5
Lions vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+42.9%+$15
Rams vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$31
Patriots vs. Buccaneersbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+127.3%+$56
All 18 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1560%9 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.5
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,441Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$2,440.54
Nothing Ever Happens: Khameneibacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+222.6%+$34.5
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+185.7%+$97.5
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+42.9%+$60
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+98%+$99
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$11,276Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$11,275.9
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$268Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+49.3%+$132
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+28.2%+$33
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$101.25
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+25%+$40
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+47.1%+$32
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$31
US strike on Syria by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$77
All 15 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST1361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+69.5%+$16.4
Knicks vs. Magicbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+61.3%+$38
Pacers vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+38.9%+$19.6
Pistons vs. Celticsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$18
Magic vs. 76ersbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+66.7%+$12
Thunder vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Pelicans vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+66.7%+$30
Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Heat vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$60
76ers vs. Bucksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+88.7%+$23.5
Rockets vs. Cavaliersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+85.2%+$46
Hornets vs. Pacersbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$53
Clippers vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+53.8%+$35
All 13 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick57cpaid+54.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
North Texas vs. Tulanebacked North Texas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$53
Arkansas State vs. Appalachian Statebacked Appalachian State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Boise State vs. Utah Statebacked Utah State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$22.5
San Diego State vs. New Mexicobacked New Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+122.2%+$27.5
All 4 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+85.2%+$46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+46.2%+$31.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Nov 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. South Florida Bullsbacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$578Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$577.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Nov 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$229
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.