NBA · resolved market
Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc855808692863c83995de2849993d25e52f3928b644ab21237715df5e1cb7553
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Mavericks, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Pelicans | 48c | 24,996$12,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,948.18 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Pelicans | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,399.96 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Mavericks | 52c | 15,347$7,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,980.27 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Pelicans | 51c | 15,000$7,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,350.56 | 375 | 57.6%216 W · 159 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Mavericks | 49c | 14,907$7,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,304.49 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec5…a219backed Mavericks | 52c | 12,481$6,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,490 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Pelicans | 48c | 5,000$2,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,593.06 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Mavericks | 52c | 3,900$2,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,028 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Mavericks | 51c | 3,245$1,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,642.5 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 51c | 2,308$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.65 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08dd…55b0backed Mavericks | 53c | 2,281$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.62 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec0…f7aabacked Mavericks | 52c | 2,109$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.85 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Mavericks | 52c | 2,080$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.6 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans | 48c | 2,056$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.08 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Mavericks | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Mavericks | 52c | 1,410$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.48 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mavericks | 52c | 1,409$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.68 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Mavericks | 52c | 1,375$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Mavericks | 52c | 1,094$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.75 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pelicans | 48c | 1,037$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.83 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Pelicans | 48c | 835$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.2 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Pelicans | 48c | 822$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.44 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Mavericks | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Mavericks | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Mavericks | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Pelicans | 50c | 464$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…cc97backed Mavericks | 52c | 440.91$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.81 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pelicans | 51c | 410.77$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.43 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Mavericks | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Mavericks | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…56aebacked Mavericks | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Mavericks | 51c | 390.99$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.41 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Mavericks | 52c | 343.99$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.88 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…9c86backed Pelicans | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x902e…5f41backed Mavericks | 52c | 213.46$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Mavericks | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…914abacked Pelicans | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 138 | 60.1%83 W · 55 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…9188backed Pelicans | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51e6…80d2backed Pelicans | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Mavericks | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Mavericks | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Mavericks | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf256…a93fbacked Mavericks | 50c | 154$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Mavericks | 52c | 152$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Mavericks | 53c | 128.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f1…025dbacked Mavericks | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Pelicans | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Mavericks | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Mavericks | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Pelicans | 48c | 58.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Pelicans | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Mavericks | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…d153backed Mavericks | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Pelicans | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4f…86b3backed Pelicans | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Pelicans | 44c | 49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Pelicans | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Mavericks | 52c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…3546backed Mavericks | 52c | 43.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…79c2backed Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Mavericks | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8163backed Mavericks | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9058…a2c2backed Mavericks | 52c | 35.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Mavericks | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Mavericks | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Mavericks | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 479 | 48%230 W · 249 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Mavericks | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2481…878dbacked Pelicans | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Mavericks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)this page
- Pelicans vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.