MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x197734bbf1817303ad0fd49ca856565689cdd83ae3a3a44318946854f91610c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 5,692$3,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,379.38 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 39c | 4,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 490 | 51%250 W · 240 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 51c | 2,484$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.56 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.93 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +36.1wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Over | 42c | 1,247$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Under | 78c | 1,000$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 25c | 957.63$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.03 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 615.23$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.32 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 48c | 437.03$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.27 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…32b7backed Under | 37c | 390.84$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.84 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 72c | 372.7$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.65 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 79c | 262.39$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.6 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 47c | 229.74$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.76 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Over | 52c | 194.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 12c | 148.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 23c | 125.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.83 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 47c | 123$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 68c | 118$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 46c | 114.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…44fdbacked Under | 48c | 108.92$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Over | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…a338backed Over | 53c | 98.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 62c | 97.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…1071backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a73…1c47backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc08d…1e00backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27b6…e8babacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…a198backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7160…cce2backed Over | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -5.4wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8226…7a58backed Over | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…f5d4backed Over | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…ef6fbacked Over | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 55c | 92.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 44c | 88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 36c | 83.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fe…8726backed Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc221…1ed3backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 48c | 59.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 69c | 56.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 47c | 51.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Over | 30c | 51.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9632…a379backed Over | 53c | 47.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafae…ca54backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1233…444abacked Over | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Under | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Over | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 49c | 34.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 48c | 32.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 778 | 52.2%406 W · 372 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked Under | 48c | 29.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 38c | 26.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Under | 54c | 24.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Under | 48c | 22.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 77c | 14.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona DiamondbacksMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.