MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f436f0f01257c5fe735e52dfba2a76d06521af53ceeeab38b7dc64146323291
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $336,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $336,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $336,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 52c | 283,757$147,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136,418.27 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Over | 48c | 100,013$48,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,006.14 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 48c | 54,979$26,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,389.84 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Over | 48c | 50,000$24,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,000 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 43,057$20,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,776.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 52c | 23,534$12,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,296.29 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,600 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 48c | 19,896$9,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,565.41 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 49c | 12,969$6,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,404.88 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 12,954$6,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,397.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 49c | 10,400$5,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,091.96 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 49c | 6,803$3,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,310.71 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 1,723$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.42 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…4b55backed Under | 51c | 1,078$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.43 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 51c | 687$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.63 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 49c | 502.73$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.34 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 49c | 496.72$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.39 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 51c | 411.76$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.76 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 51c | 395.93$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.01 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 54c | 367.15$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.65 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 38c | 254.57$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.81 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 48c | 254$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.65 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 23c | 245.8$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 48c | 211.17$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.38 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…90c7backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 51c | 177.39$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.92 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 41c | 164$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.76 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9a…c65dbacked Over | 59c | 162.76$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.01 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 15c | 128.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 62c | 122.73$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 48c | 115$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 45c | 112.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Under | 51c | 89.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Over | 48c | 70.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Under | 66c | 59.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 51c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 51c | 41.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…c2d0backed Over | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Under | 51c | 34.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 43c | 34.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c4…622fbacked Over | 50c | 25.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 215 | 49.8%107 W · 108 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Under | 51c | 23.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…f7a1backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona DiamondbacksMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.