Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Altmaier (-1.5) vs Martinez (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1987f2f3786b365d0fdbc2295d657e82a1f113c2c2a6a52a44a1e56fc0beb787
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Altmaierof Altmaier, Martinez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc954…1c82backed Altmaier | 37c | 5,236$1,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,309.99 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Martinez | 68c | 1,295$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.72 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…fa8ebacked Martinez | 60c | 1,113$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.85 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Altmaier | 35c | 818.06$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.97 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Martinez | 60c | 781.87$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.12 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Altmaier | 38c | 558.09$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.9 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Martinez | 18c | 487.18$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.42 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Martinez | 68c | 463.27$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.02 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf268…ab74backed Martinez | 62c | 450.83$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.01 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…498cbacked Martinez | 60c | 443.52$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfe…5c6cbacked Martinez | 59c | 331.5$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Martinez | 66c | 316.3$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.26 | 419 | 55.8%234 W · 185 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Altmaier | 31c | 289.86$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb12…f8f5backed Martinez | 63c | 266.41$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa765…1a6ebacked Martinez | 60c | 264.47$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17a9…c488backed Martinez | 66c | 164.42$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.52 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Martinez | 66c | 156.95$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.59 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2c…cd4ebacked Martinez | 71c | 138.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 249 | 45.4%113 W · 136 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Altmaier | 59c | 134.76$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6840…9797backed Martinez | 60c | 133.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…50febacked Martinez | 41c | 129.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 354 | 36.4%129 W · 225 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Martinez | 68c | 106.89$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…2e1abacked Martinez | 65c | 75.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Martinez | 59c | 66.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Martinez | 63c | 53.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Altmaier | 36c | 52.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Altmaier | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed Altmaier | 67c | 45.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 209 | 53.6%112 W · 97 L | -19.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -21%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e31…5e8ebacked Martinez | 64c | 42.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Altmaier | 61c | 35.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x855f…4954backed Martinez | 71c | 33.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 105 | 70.5%74 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Altmaier | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…02f5backed Martinez | 66c | 29.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Altmaier | 46c | 29.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf55…92a2backed Altmaier | 66c | 28.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Altmaier (-1.5) vs Martinez (+1.5)this page
- Altmaier vs. Martinez: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Altmaier vs. Martinez: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Bucharest Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Pedro MartinezDaniel Altmaier won
- Daniel Altmaier vs. Pedro Martinez: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Altmaier vs MartinezAltmaier won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.