MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1993cf29bdf7812925b41041620836368a7884b957e351bf59fe2980319e4aa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cincinnati Reds, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 74c | 10,262$7,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,608.91 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228e…4f84backed Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 9,634$6,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,152.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 8,435$2,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,804.82 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 5,535$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,096.2 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 25c | 342.15$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.61 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 328.23$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.43 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Seattle Mariners | 75c | 319.61$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.71 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Seattle Mariners | 75c | 279.23$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.42 | 453 | 58.7%266 W · 187 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 96.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Seattle Mariners | 15c | 90.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec8…4bedbacked Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 78.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 78.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fc…d8f4backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 78.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners | 25c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7030…8d7abacked Seattle Mariners | 33c | 40.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15e…7c54backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 29.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle MarinersCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.