MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafabfca5dc4f2de64e2a590bdff9db842beed9087be5b8fd54e3b59d7b31b8dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 57c | 15,185$8,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,551.32 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 52c | 6,543$3,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,141.87 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 56c | 4,985$2,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,196.15 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 4,775$2,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,074.85 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a0…b16bbacked Under | 29c | 3,921$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.75 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 58c | 3,620$2,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.18 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 43c | 2,946$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.09 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 58c | 2,779$1,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615.66 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Over | 57c | 2,486$1,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.9 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 60c | 2,362$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,417.32 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 2,360$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.53 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 44c | 2,048$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.88 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 1,852$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.1 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 43c | 1,819$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.17 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe96d…ba90backed Over | 66c | 1,487$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 44c | 1,285$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.27 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d2…399bbacked Under | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Under | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 168 | 48.2%81 W · 87 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 43c | 930.23$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 43c | 873.74$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.55 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…ad74backed Under | 18c | 833.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 59c | 754.88$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.27 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…f040backed Under | 3c | 700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 43c | 585$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.55 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 500$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe846…252bbacked Under | 23c | 500$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 44c | 484.84$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.17 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 67c | 469.63$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 43c | 373$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.39 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 43c | 280$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.4 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 58c | 255.78$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.38 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 45c | 244.46$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 44c | 232.5$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 37c | 209.95$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.68 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 43c | 199.97$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 43c | 180$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 45c | 163.87$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 44c | 140$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 75c | 139.1$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebd…7fd4backed Under | 51c | 129.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 55c | 106.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 37c | 97.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 44c | 97.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Under | 44c | 97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Over | 56c | 75.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…f6c9backed Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Under | 44c | 64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 53c | 61.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 51c | 54.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec8…4bedbacked Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fc…d8f4backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 44c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 42.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 43c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 51c | 37.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 64c | 36.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Over | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 43c | 27.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed Over | 56c | 26.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 56c | 19.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Under | 58c | 18.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle MarinersCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.