MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78e8da5eb86ee150d671c72645d6e678b53a08de860acecb4131e4601161cdeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Seattle Mariners, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f1b…f28abacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 3,034$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 2,953$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.66 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55a6…eeb0backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 1,962$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.88 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 1,395$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.42 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 953$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.73 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 820.31$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.53 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 685.27$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.09 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 600$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23e…e4a3backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 465.17$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.37 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 465.17$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.37 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 449.94$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.07 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 381$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.02 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 332.73$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.76 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 299.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 289.63$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.64 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9be…08bebacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners | 36c | 225.11$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 159.16$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ede…e99cbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 114.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 111.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 104.16$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 84.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 74.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Seattle Mariners | 47c | 70.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 68.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 46.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f2…6d82backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9a…3333backed Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 32.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 29.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle MarinersCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.