Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19d4a8181fa896de8da0a056ad83b2ce5e36b693ced3879c0823c7941aaf3769
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 44c | 1,490$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.56 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 71c | 1,455$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.35 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 39c | 526.67$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.26 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 31c | 431.47$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.65 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 68c | 398.72$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.95 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 337.99$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.41 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 303.41$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.04 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…5c4fbacked No | 24c | 300.28$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 30c | 291.67$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.42 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 65c | 228.3$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 44c | 192.12$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.88 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 47c | 186.87$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed No | 67c | 157.79$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.42 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 151.77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 38c | 146.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…6765backed Yes | 53c | 139.81$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.91 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 46c | 132.46$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…7014backed Yes | 80c | 99.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 42c | 96.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 94.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 35c | 92.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d0…88f6backed No | 76c | 90.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 38c | 86.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 70.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 67.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 20c | 64.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cc…da77backed Yes | 51c | 62.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…ae97backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1565…3a47backed No | 62c | 48.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 62c | 45.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 43c | 43.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e9…a4eebacked Yes | 30c | 42.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 32c | 40.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 61c | 39.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 64c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 33c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 67c | 29.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 43c | 25.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 74c | 22.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 79c | 21.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 68c | 20.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 52c | 19.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb65f…fff1backed Yes | 69c | 19.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked No | 60c | 19.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x546d…e135backed No | 66c | 17.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.