Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19dbcb95462195e6660f451f76d4ef30686244b33f6477302c6a96ebed7dbc69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chelsea FCof Manchester City FC, Chelsea FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd538…317cbacked Manchester City FC | 16c | 1,900$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 221 | 25.8%57 W · 164 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Manchester City FC | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Manchester City FC | 9c | 1,199$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.98 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2c…a49cbacked Manchester City FC | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…ae13backed Manchester City FC | 16c | 306.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Manchester City FC | 15c | 301.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…5a9cbacked Manchester City FC | 16c | 193.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c5…6f9cbacked Manchester City FC | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Manchester City FC | 18c | 161.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Manchester City FC | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Manchester City FC | 15c | 98.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3217…7d40backed Manchester City FC | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)this page
- Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.