MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19f0475ab096f5806c246ca8e438ba59887139dbe4054998332eb32736770e1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under | 58c | 2,758$1,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.86 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Over | 44c | 2,657$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.94 | 134 | 58.2%78 W · 56 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 34c | 2,278$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.44 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 66c | 2,048$1,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.32 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 70c | 1,367$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.61 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 27c | 1,128$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.73 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 541.26$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.74 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 76c | 528.02$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.82 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under | 67c | 441.09$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.09 | 163 | 53.4%87 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 56c | 435.75$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.17 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 33c | 372.94$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.64 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 64c | 245$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Over | 41c | 125$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 616 | 46.4%286 W · 330 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 113.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085d…c89ebacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 33c | 70.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 43c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 495 | 40.2%199 W · 296 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Under | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 58.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 57c | 53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Under | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 59c | 31.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…feb1backed Over | 34c | 31.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -9.7wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.