MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43e05efff349d3cc0f0f438489d8bf72f4602f16034f58180ee2c3d39757c552
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 6,341$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,441.27 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 4,114$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.48 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Atlanta Braves | 52c | 2,837$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.25 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8582…4c5fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 1,746$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Milwaukee Brewers | 31c | 1,035$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.05 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Atlanta Braves | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9905…add3backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 975.61$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 933$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.77 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 46c | 750.78$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.67 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Milwaukee Brewers | 63c | 675.6$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.97 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 442.34$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 433.69$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.31 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 379.52$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.52 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 70c | 199.5$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 199.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.82 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Atlanta Braves | 51c | 159.08$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Atlanta Braves | 47c | 125.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 120.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Milwaukee Brewers | 23c | 62.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Atlanta Braves | 55c | 54.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Atlanta Braves | 50c | 53.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 47.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 45.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 35c | 40.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 34.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 57c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1e…6e1fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked Atlanta Braves | 53c | 20.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.