MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6641a2a5e6abf15efd8dc2c69cbd321d504cf2ee8003b11b53ba8c95fde88f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2dd7…89aabacked Yes | 46c | 5,517$2,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,989.69 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…6866backed No | 56c | 5,056$2,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,831.2 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 44c | 4,353$1,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,437.35 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 56c | 4,196$2,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,333.71 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 44c | 3,500$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 54c | 2,439$1,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316.93 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Yes | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c817backed No | 55c | 744.22$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed No | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 54c | 436.36$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.63 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked No | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked No | 55c | 227.27$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 220 | 55.5%122 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 56c | 195$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked No | 55c | 133.9$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.65 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 56c | 95.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…e128backed Yes | 45c | 66.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed No | 55c | 56.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3995…f71dbacked No | 56c | 44.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 44c | 43.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 56c | 41.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc68c…1769backed No | 55c | 36.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 45c | 22.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewersthis page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.