MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c971a5e1b31ca7b795adf89e7aa4cd2db5406f6cc564de752fef207af090161
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 3,891$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,227.28 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Atlanta Braves | 57c | 2,203$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.8 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 1,615$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 57c | 1,572$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.72 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 1,551$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.52 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 673.8$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.16 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 69c | 647.13$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Atlanta Braves | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 114 | 64%73 W · 41 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Atlanta Braves | 58c | 247.07$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.3 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…33efbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Atlanta Braves | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 167$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.53 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Atlanta Braves | 70c | 125$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Atlanta Braves | 27c | 113.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Atlanta Braves | 60c | 109.6$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.26 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 90.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Atlanta Braves | 22c | 78.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Atlanta Braves | 58c | 74.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Atlanta Braves | 57c | 64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 26c | 54.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Atlanta Braves | 59c | 54.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbafe…33a6backed Atlanta Braves | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Atlanta Braves | 59c | 50.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Milwaukee Brewers | 30c | 44.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed Atlanta Braves | 58c | 22.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Atlanta Braves | 57c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.