NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a0b7a74c120bd471fe0d938a15bd595ab7735dd411223f6fdfbac84fcbaf6c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 54c | 23,739$12,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,729.3 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 47c | 12,849$6,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,823.08 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 1c | 8,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 217 | 4.1%9 W · 208 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 46c | 6,000$2,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,240 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Under | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,159.99 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Over | 45c | 3,995$1,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,197.2 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 46c | 3,013$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,627.14 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 2,958$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.57 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 53c | 2,688$1,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,424.45 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Under | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 45c | 1,580$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Under | 5c | 1,200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 107 | 6.5%7 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Under | 52c | 1,185$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.19 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 13c | 960.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.93 | 294 | 12.9%38 W · 256 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 48c | 846.95$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.41 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa70b…7a8abacked Over | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.33 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Under | 2c | 832$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 701.57$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.68 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed Over | 47c | 664.02$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.02 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a36…4121backed Over | 47c | 609.61$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.09 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 46c | 506$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.24 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d2…92c8backed Under | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.52 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked Over | 48c | 483.33$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.33 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 53c | 444$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.32 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 55c | 374$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.75 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Under | 14c | 300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 46c | 238.22$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.22 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 53c | 227.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.46 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 49c | 223$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.63 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 46c | 188.78$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.85 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 54c | 174$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.48 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 52c | 151.37$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.71 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Over | 65c | 133.53$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…dd60backed Under | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 55c | 91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Under | 67c | 74.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 48c | 67.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 59.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…af02backed Over | 48c | 51.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 74c | 50.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f91…8065backed Over | 46c | 43.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Under | 56c | 42.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce70…0be2backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 44c | 33.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 128 | 26.6%34 W · 94 L | -12.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Over | 63c | 32.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 55c | 32.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 53c | 30.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 46c | 26.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…d51fbacked Over | 48c | 23.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 55c | 21.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…893bbacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5this page
- Flyers vs. SabresSabres won
- Flyers vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.