Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a20fc290a0e44424ca29207e8e0dfded2936238e381c4bb7c94e0e97b17ee03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,763 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 30c | 518.84$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.83 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 25c | 500.02$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.11 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 34c | 346.5$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.99 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 266.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 20c | 242.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 231.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…0506backed Yes | 12c | 225.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 217.86$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 26c | 182.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 9c | 180$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 77c | 165.02$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 124.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 31c | 123.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked No | 69c | 123.09$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 12c | 119.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 106.58$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…8f51backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 78c | 97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 85.45$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 23c | 77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 76.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 30c | 75.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 35c | 58.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 32c | 53.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 27c | 53.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0f…1147backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 47.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked No | 72c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 35c | 38.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 68c | 38.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4201…007fbacked Yes | 33c | 37.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed Yes | 33c | 37.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…1d38backed No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 33c | 36.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8073…25febacked Yes | 31c | 35.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 66c | 35.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 63c | 34.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…eb67backed No | 69c | 32.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb20e…58cebacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6a…4055backed No | 69c | 29.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 66c | 24.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 69c | 23.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 65c | 23.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…4f99backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…f159backed No | 75c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 69c | 20.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…c28cbacked No | 68c | 20.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 65c | 19.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…337abacked No | 68c | 17.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 67c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 66c | 17.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 16.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…747ebacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae7…10d5backed No | 68c | 14.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or higher on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.