Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2baaa12a8ed4ce482cb1f9ac61cd53eb5ee15391775cbe49cc1a66a5a327ba8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,081 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 26c | 615.68$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 342.47$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 10c | 259.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 27c | 247.93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.24 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 208.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb355…f149backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 25c | 194.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 44c | 179.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.95 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 175.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 44c | 150.7$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.75 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 147.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 35c | 142.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.94 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 48c | 141.39$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 26c | 137.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.65 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 74c | 101.86$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 43c | 99.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 70c | 95.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 93.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.39 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa31c…bdf7backed Yes | 45c | 89.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 50c | 80.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 58c | 80.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 37c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 78.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.53 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 75c | 72.2$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 75c | 67.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 79c | 67.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 67.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc585…c51ebacked Yes | 77c | 65.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 60.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc23…d4cbbacked Yes | 75c | 59.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 59c | 59.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 27c | 59.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 19c | 57.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…5dc8backed Yes | 71c | 53.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed No | 30c | 45.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 39c | 43.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 71c | 35.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b15…e32dbacked Yes | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 65c | 34.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 77c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 80c | 31.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cc…4578backed No | 55c | 30.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…63b0backed Yes | 71c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 69c | 25.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 78c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…3c1ebacked Yes | 77c | 22.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 66cpaid | -49%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…f159backed No | 79c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 21.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…065cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4201…007fbacked No | 55c | 19.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xece8…b886backed Yes | 73c | 19.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 71c | 18.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 65c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or higher on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.