Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a508ac2be5294c07f54734670d80e0830aa54499756581d756b2e989ee99181
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c54…f0bbbacked Yes | 11c | 1,870$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 72c | 408.83$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.83 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 4c | 389.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 152.59$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 79c | 149.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.94 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 139.76$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.29 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 22c | 130$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 79c | 124.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 119.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 20c | 118.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 50c | 115.92$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c500backed Yes | 32c | 112.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed No | 78c | 110.28$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 27c | 109.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 52c | 102.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…3538backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1352…2f95backed Yes | 27c | 84.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 67c | 79.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 76.11$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 75.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 55c | 74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 59c | 73.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 57.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 56c | 46.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 46.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 40c | 42.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3db…f112backed Yes | 29c | 34.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 78c | 32.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 31.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 31.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 71c | 28.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 50c | 26.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 51c | 26.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 79c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 78c | 25.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 80c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed No | 71c | 24.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 54c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 58c | 21.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 78c | 21.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 20.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 19.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…864cbacked Yes | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or below on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.