Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a56b7f926420148fd38ac665944757a6b35537fcb9996716397fe68ca804465
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,651 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 10c | 2,023$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.7 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…f3d3backed No | 1c | 1,954$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 35c | 786.29$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.43 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 7c | 499.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.79 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 444.91$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.51 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 22c | 432.49$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.98 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 414.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 64c | 396.36$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.48 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 351.59$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 9c | 341.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 12c | 272.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.28 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a3…ec5dbacked No | 15c | 267.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 15c | 257.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 31c | 249$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.98 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 65c | 221.7$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 13c | 210.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.99 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed No | 14c | 210.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 6c | 209.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 31c | 196.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.87 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 33c | 190.14$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.66 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 30c | 166.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.94 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 15c | 163.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.37 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 71c | 153.36$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.41 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 53c | 150.71$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…1432backed Yes | 11c | 150.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +840.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 77c | 150$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.09 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 142.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 16c | 126.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.72 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 32c | 123.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.23 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 63c | 121.31$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 120.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 119.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed No | 76c | 103.09$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 69c | 101.03$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 96.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 14c | 95.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.54 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 39c | 93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 68c | 92.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 17c | 92.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes | 31c | 90.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 31c | 84.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…d075backed No | 64c | 76.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 32c | 72.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 69c | 65.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e76…65bdbacked No | 73c | 62.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 41c | 60.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 31c | 57.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf24e…9903backed Yes | 39c | 53.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ba…df9bbacked Yes | 38c | 53.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 39c | 51.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 68c | 51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 41c | 50.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…6d40backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4430…a0a8backed Yes | 35c | 49.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 48.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 56c | 47.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 34c | 44.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 62c | 40.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed No | 73c | 38.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 65c | 37.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 64c | 37.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 54c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 70c | 35.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 67c | 34.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbd…d3fdbacked No | 72c | 34.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…fe21backed No | 75c | 34.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 72cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…98d8backed Yes | 39c | 33.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 69c | 32.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 68c | 32.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3111…76f8backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 66c | 30.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…4ed5backed No | 73c | 28.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 73c | 27.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 66c | 24.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…958bbacked Yes | 75c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…1a58backed No | 63c | 19.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 74c | 18.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.